The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) projects retail sales of passenger new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China to reach approximately 1.11 million units in September. This figure represents a 10.5% increase compared to the 1.005 million units sold in August, though it marks a 14.35% decline year-on-year.
NEV penetration is expected to reach a record 65.7% of total passenger car retail sales, surpassing the 65.2% recorded in August. Despite this, the broader automotive market remains under pressure, with total passenger car retail sales forecasted at 1.69 million units, a 24.6% decrease from the previous year.
Major automakers, which represent over 70% of the market, have set September sales targets less than 10% higher than August levels. This indicates a weaker performance than typical seasonal patterns for the end of the quarter, as market fundamentals and consumer expectations show no significant improvement.
Daily sales data shows fluctuations throughout the month. After averaging 35,000 units in the first week, daily sales are projected to rise to 96,000 units by the fifth week. This growth is driven by pre-holiday demand and efforts by manufacturers to meet quarterly targets despite a 13.9% year-to-date decline in auto retail sales.
The CPCA notes that gasoline-powered vehicle demand remains constrained by volatile fuel prices. Conversely, the NEV sector benefits from a substantial order backlog and the delivery of delayed models. Local subsidies and trade-in incentives continue to provide support for the market.
