The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has initiated three investigations into potential insider trading on the prediction platform Polymarket. The probes focus on event contracts related to presidential pardons, Iran, and Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings.
The first investigation, approved in early May by CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, concerns a trader who profited more than $300,000 from pardon-related markets. A second probe, launched in late May, examines accounts that reportedly earned $2.4 million with a 98% win rate on Iran-related contracts.
The third investigation, approved in July, targets insider trading involving Google search rankings. This case is separate from the ongoing legal action against former Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo, who allegedly gained over $1.2 million using confidential information.
The Southern District of New York is conducting a parallel investigation into the Google-related activity. Polymarket recently returned to the US market in late 2025 following the acquisition of QCEX, operating under CFTC oversight after a four-year absence.
