Analyst Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, identifies three key indicators suggesting Bitcoin may be entering a sustained bullish phase. The asset recorded a 36% increase over the past three months and a 20% gain in August. According to the analyst, these price movements differ from previous failed breakouts observed between late 2025 and early 2026.
The second factor involves historical chart patterns. Cappelleri notes that the current weekly price structure mirrors the 2022–2023 transition, where moving averages shifted from capping rallies to supporting dips. This shift historically signaled a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend, which persisted until late 2025.
The third indicator is a long-term trend line dating back to 2017. Bitcoin’s recent rebound occurred near this line, a technical level that previously preceded rallies within months. Additionally, exchange trading volume showed a recovery in August, as reported by CryptoQuant data.
Despite these signals, macroeconomic factors remain a concern for market participants. Data from CME FedWatch as of September 28 indicated a 68.1% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October. The sustainability of the current trend depends on whether Bitcoin can maintain its momentum against these rising rate expectations.
