Canada has unveiled its immigration strategy for 2026–2028, setting an annual target of 380 000 permanent residents. Simultaneously, the nation has updated its monetary policy framework, reaffirming the Bank of Canada’s commitment to price stability. The central bank maintains a 2% inflation target, operating within a control range of 1% to 3%.
Economic forecasts include rising oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude expected to average $87 per barrel in 2026 and $89 in 2027. These projections and policy updates are influencing market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions. Participants are currently monitoring the Bank of Canada’s upcoming announcement in December.
Prediction markets currently assign a 37.5% probability to a 25 basis point increase in the overnight rate for the December meeting. Meanwhile, a 63.5% probability is placed on the Bank of Canada maintaining the current rate. Investors are awaiting further employment and inflation data, alongside official commentary from Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers.
