Open interest in call options for the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) reached 5.2 million contracts, representing $20 billion in notional exposure. This marks the highest level since 2007, following an 86% increase from 2.8 million contracts recorded on August 24, 2026.
The ETF price rose by approximately 15% during this period, bringing its year-to-date gains to 19%. Daily trading volume for these options surged to more than six times the 30-day average in early September, with most activity focused on bullish call positions.
Investors are primarily targeting strike prices of $43 and $45, which are 10% to 18% above the current trading range of $38 to $39. These contracts are set to expire on November 20, 2026, covering the period of the general election and a potential runoff.
Market activity is driven by shifting polling data for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is narrowing the gap against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, creating uncertainty that has led to increased implied volatility and an extreme call-to-put skew.
