Flávio Bolsonaro has become the leader on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. His implied probability of victory is currently estimated at approximately 52%, while the incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds about 45%.
The total trading volume on the Polymarket contract dedicated to the Brazilian presidential election has surpassed $147 million. Earlier in 2026, Lula maintained a lead on the platform, but the situation has shifted as the first round of voting approaches on October 4, 2026.
A poll conducted by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg on September 10 shows a tight race between the candidates, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 46.4% and Lula at 46.2% in a hypothetical runoff. Meanwhile, the former president Jair Bolsonaro remains at 1–2% on the platform due to eligibility constraints.
Polymarket operates on blockchain technology, allowing users to trade shares in outcome contracts. The platform exists in a regulatory gray zone in Brazil, which may lead to an international participant base and potential biases that differ from traditional domestic polling.
