Bitcoin requires stronger ETF inflows and increased spot market demand to sustain a rally toward the $90,000–93,000 range, according to Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang. While lower expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike have supported recent price action, current institutional demand remains insufficient to force a breakout above the $87,000 resistance level.
Data from CME FedWatch indicates the probability of an October rate hike dropped to 19% from 51% a week earlier, following September payroll growth of 29,000. Despite this, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain levels above $87,000 as profit-taking offsets institutional buying. The asset recently retreated below $86,000 after touching $86,698.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $2.6 billion in September and $134 million during the first two trading days of October. However, flows have become volatile, with net redemptions reaching $90 million on October 5. BlackRock’s IBIT continues to lead the market, with cumulative net inflows nearing $66 billion.
Analysts identify $87,400 as a critical threshold for a confirmed breakout. Downside support levels are currently set at $84,000 and $82,000. Potential risks to the current price trajectory include higher-than-expected inflation reports, hawkish Federal Reserve guidance, or rising Treasury yields.
