According to Bitfinex, more than 71% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently in unrealized profit. This level approaches a threshold that has historically signaled the transition from bearish to bullish market phases since 2012.
The supply in profit metric has shown volatility. On August 27, when Bitcoin closed at $80,256, the figure reached 72.1%. However, subsequent price drops pushed the metric down to 67.7%. By early September, with the price near $77,381, the supply in profit settled around 68%, up from approximately 65% earlier in the year.
Historical data indicates that durable market recoveries since 2012 have required the supply in profit to reach at least 64%, with sustained movements between 60% and 70% preceding robust bullish trends.
CryptoQuant reported that as of August 28, approximately $617 billion in invested capital remained underwater. This creates resistance zones as holders decide whether to sell at break-even or hold for further gains.
The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates that many recent buyers are exiting positions at or near their break-even price, suggesting a controlled rotation of supply rather than panic-driven liquidations.
Market dynamics are currently influenced by ETF inflows throughout 2026 and the potential for interest rate cuts. If Bitcoin holds above $80,256, the supply in profit could exceed 72%, while a drop below $77,000 could return the metric to 65%.
