Bitcoin continues to trade below $80,000, with its price around $78,380 and a 24-hour drop of 1.3%. Market signals are currently mixed. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen three consecutive weeks of positive inflows, spot demand remains weak and some data suggests large holders are shifting toward distribution.
Between August 31 and September 4, US spot Bitcoin ETFs received approximately $987 million in net inflows, marking the third consecutive positive week. The largest single-day inflow occurred on September 3, reaching $730.8 million, which helped push the price above $82,000. Analysts from QCP suggest that while ETFs provide structural support, daily flow changes often reflect position adjustments before macroeconomic data releases.
On-chain metrics show a positive shift. The 30-day change in Bitcoin's realized capitalization has returned to positive territory for the first time in 87 days, reaching +0.88% by September 6. The realized capitalization increased by $9.36 billion over 30 days to reach $1.068 trillion. This is viewed as a sign of the capital base recovery, although a similar short-term reversal occurred in May.
There is a divergence in data regarding large holders. Glassnode indicates that holder groups have shifted toward distribution for the first time since June, with the Accumulation Trend Score dropping to approximately 0.37, primarily driven by wallets with at least 1,000 BTC. Conversely, CryptoQuant data shows continued accumulation by large holders, while retail investor reserves are decreasing.
CoinShares analysts note that Bitcoin is once again reacting more strongly to concerns over US government finance stability. The 90-day correlation with gold has reached its highest level since 2020, while its link to the stock market has weakened. However, high interest rates, with 10-year US Treasury yields around 4.7%, continue to limit growth potential.
The market is awaiting key US economic data: the Producer Price Index (PPI) on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 11, followed by the Fed's key rate meeting on September 15-16. Additionally, Fidelity analysts suggest that while a bottom may have formed in July, a new minimum could potentially occur around November based on historical cyclicity.