On-chain data indicates a recovery in spot demand for Bitcoin as the price reached $85 000. CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D reports that the 30-day apparent demand growth metric improved from -182 000 BTC to -101 000 BTC between September 24 and October 1.
Despite the global recovery, US spot demand remains weak, as evidenced by a negative Coinbase Premium index. Analysts note that sustained selling pressure from American investors persists, and a shift to positive territory for this metric is required to confirm the current rally.
Spot trading volumes are showing signs of recovery after hitting three-year lows in July. In September, Binance reported a spot turnover of over $50 billion compared to $42 billion in July, while Bybit reached $19 billion and Kraken hit $8 billion.
Glassnode data shows that long-term holders have remained profitable throughout the current market cycle, a trend not seen since 2015. The MVRV metric for this cohort bottomed above 1, whereas in previous cycles it fell below 1, indicating losses.
Bitcoin is currently 13% away from its long-term mean. Historical data from the last three cycles suggests that significant gains typically occur after reclaiming this level, with market peaks usually following more than a year later.
