Bitcoin started the week below $83,000 following geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Despite this decline, the asset remains up by more than 40% for the third quarter of 2026, marking its strongest Q3 performance since 2017. The average Q3 return since 2013 has been 8.6%.
Market participants are preparing for the monthly and quarterly candle closes on Wednesday. Key price levels include the 2026 yearly open at $88,700 and the ETF investor cost basis at $86,000. Support levels are identified at $80,500 for corporate treasuries and $76,700 for the True Market Mean.
Macroeconomic focus shifts to upcoming US inflation and labor data. The PCE index for August is expected at 3.6% year-on-year. CME Group data indicates a 70.3% probability of a 0.25% interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October, up from 57.7% the previous week.
Analysts are monitoring the $82,500 level as a critical support point. According to Rekt Capital, maintaining this price is essential to confirm an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Failure to hold this support could lead to a retracement within the $60,000 to $80,000 range.
