Bitcoin maintained a price level above $83,000 on Thursday, following a period of volatility. The asset began the fourth quarter at approximately $83,550, having recorded a 42.7% increase during the third quarter, which marks its strongest Q3 performance since 2017.
The recent rally stalled on Wednesday after reaching $85,600. This movement followed the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which showed 3.4% year-on-year inflation for August, below the expected 3.7%. Core PCE inflation rose by 3.0% annually.
Analysts noted that methodology changes in the PCE calculation, affecting sectors like software and legal services, may have reduced the core inflation figure by up to 20 basis points. July data was also revised downward by 30 basis points, leading to market skepticism regarding the latest reading.
Liquidation data indicates a cluster of $60 million in exposure near $83,000, with critical support identified at $82,500. Meanwhile, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that while Bitcoin's price has risen 35% since August, coin-denominated open interest has fallen by nearly 20%.
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's October meeting currently place a 37% probability on a quarter-percentage-point rate hike. Investors are increasingly favoring the maintenance of the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4%.
