Bitcoin price recovered to approximately $84 200 after a dip to $82 500. This movement occurred alongside a rise in US Treasury yields, with 10-year bond yields holding near 5.27%, a 19-year high. On September 28, 30-year bond yields reached 5.5704%, the highest level since mid-May 2004.
Market data from Glassnode shows a complex environment. While capital inflows into Bitcoin continue, profit-taking has intensified. The share of Bitcoin supply in profit rose from 69.3% to 74%, and the ratio of realized profit to loss increased from 0.8 to 1.4. The realized capitalization monthly change reached 1.1%, and the share of hot capital hit 18.8%.
Derivatives markets show conflicting signals. The CVD for perpetual futures dropped to negative $261.5 million, indicating aggressive selling. Conversely, open interest in futures rose by 2.1% to $38.9 billion. Analysts at QCP noted that the price drop on September 28 coincided with declines in Nasdaq-100 and gold, suggesting broad liquidity withdrawal.
Broader economic factors include Brent crude oil trading above $106 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns. Markets currently price the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October at over 70%. Meanwhile, US equity markets saw declines on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.8% and the Nasdaq dropping 0.9%.
