Bitcoin concluded September with a 6.33% gain, defying historical trends that typically see losses for the asset during this month. Data from Coinglass indicates that while September has averaged a 2.41% decline since 2013, the asset has now closed higher for four consecutive years. Analysts at CryptoQuant suggest this performance signals a new bull market, citing a Bull Score Index of 90 out of 100.
Despite the positive close, demand has cooled as October begins. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a shift, recording $148.69 million in net outflows on September 30, ending a nine-day inflow streak. CryptoQuant estimates that apparent spot demand decreased by 170 000 BTC over 30 days, while futures demand growth slowed significantly from 164 000 BTC to 16 000 BTC.
Profit-taking activity has increased among long-term holders. On September 22, holders realized 25 700 BTC in profit, the highest daily figure recorded in 2026. Data from Glassnode shows that the share of realized profit from long-term holders rose from 34% to 55% in the week leading up to September 29, with unrealized profit margins reaching 33%.
Market participants are currently monitoring a significant sell wall on Binance located between $85 000 and $85 500. This order volume has tripled since appearing on September 24. Analysts identify the 365-day moving average near $80 000 as the primary support level, with the True Market Mean estimated at $77 200.
