Bitcoin is approaching the end of September with a gain of over 6.5%, trading near $84,000. Historically, September is the weakest month for the asset, with an average loss of approximately 2.4%, while October typically shows an average gain of nearly 20%.
Bitfinex analysts note that a sustained breakout requires stronger spot market demand. Futures open interest decreased from over 700,000 BTC on September 21 to 644,000 BTC on September 29, indicating reduced speculative appetite and leverage.
Demand is currently visible in the $82,500 to $84,000 range, where the volume of Bitcoin with this cost basis grew from 110,000 BTC to 306,000 BTC between September 27 and September 30. However, significant supply exists between $84,000 and $86,500, totaling 1.39 million BTC.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.08 billion in inflows over nine sessions, though demand has slowed. ETF purchases relative to daily issuance dropped from 25.6 times on September 21 to 1.8 times on September 29. Analysts suggest daily inflows of $190 million are needed to overcome resistance.
Bitfinex sets a potential October target of $95,000 to $96,700, provided Bitcoin maintains support above $81,300. At the time of the report, other assets traded at $2,700 for Ether, $1.48 for XRP, and $118 for Solana.
