Bitcoin maintained its position above the 100-day moving average as markets prepared for US midterm elections and upcoming tech earnings. The asset price remained above the 100-week exponential moving average of $77,759 and the 100-day simple moving average of $76,548.
Historical data shows Bitcoin declined in the fourth quarter during the last three US midterm election years, dropping 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018, and 14.8% in 2022. As of Monday, Bitcoin was down 6.4% for the current quarter following its weakest October since 2014.
US midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, with prediction market Kalshi estimating a 93.6% probability of Democrats winning the House of Representatives. President Donald Trump stated he would exercise veto power if Democrats secure control of Congress.
Macroeconomic focus shifts to labor data, including September job openings and October nonfarm payrolls. Payrolls are projected to increase by 65,000. Meanwhile, the CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates a 67% to 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in December.
Earnings reports from 20% of S&P 500 companies are expected this week, including results from Apple and Palantir. Market analysts note that investors are currently sensitive to news regarding capital expenditures and revenue growth within the technology sector.
