Traders on the Polymarket prediction platform assigned a 61% probability to a Democratic victory in both chambers of Congress as of September 28. The upcoming midterms are scheduled for November 3, with the Senate remaining the primary focus for market participants.
Legislative progress remains stalled, as the Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on September 15. The bill, which aimed to define regulatory oversight for tokens, failed to receive any Democratic support despite 126 requested revisions from the party.
Current market analysis suggests that Federal Reserve policy exerts more influence on Bitcoin than legislative developments. On September 16, the Fed raised interest rates to a range of 3.75%–4%, with 16 out of 18 officials signaling expectations for further rate hikes before the end of the year.
Political activity in the sector continues, with the crypto super PAC Fairshake launching a $30 million advertising campaign. The initiative specifically targets the Senate reelection bid of Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio, highlighting ongoing industry efforts to influence political outcomes.
