Bitcoin is currently trading near $76 808, remaining about $4 900 below the threshold of $81 700 that CryptoQuant identifies as the start of a bull market. This level represents the average closing price of the asset over the past year. Analysts note that the price has approached this mark throughout the month but has yet to achieve a weekly close above it.
Data from CryptoQuant shows an Exchange Whale Ratio of 0.93, indicating that large holders have been moving coins to exchanges to sell. Simultaneously, long-term holders have released approximately 539 000 BTC this year within the resistance band of $77 100 to $80 200. Analysts suggest that this selling pressure from two distinct groups creates a significant barrier to further growth.
Institutional activity remains limited, as evidenced by a negative Coinbase Premium, which shows that Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on the primary US exchange compared to offshore markets. Meanwhile, retail traders have shown interest, with the Fear and Greed Index at 66 and a taker buy/sell ratio of 1.12. Analysts warn that the current market conditions could lead to a long squeeze.
Looking at potential price movements, resistance levels are identified at $83 600 and $88 700. If the price declines, support is expected at $70 000, followed by a range between $62 000 and $65 000. In that lower range, holders have accumulated roughly 476 000 BTC throughout the current year.
