Analysts at BloFin Research suggest that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market phase, supported by its recovery above the 50-week moving average. This technical indicator, which previously signaled bull markets in 2015, 2019, and 2023, saw Bitcoin reclaim the level near $78,800 in September. By early October, the asset traded above $86,000.
The MVRV ratio, which compares current market value to the average investor purchase price, reached 1.54 as of October 11, surpassing its 365-day average of 1.44. This metric often appears during the early stages of a bull cycle. Despite recent market volatility, the long-term recovery trend remains intact.
Data indicates that Bitcoin's market cycles are becoming less volatile. The drawdown from the October 2025 peak of $124,824 to the June 2026 low of $58,525 was approximately 53%, significantly lower than the 76.7% to 84.5% declines seen in previous bear markets. The most recent downturn lasted about eight months, compared to the historical 12–13 months.
Institutional influence is reshaping market dynamics, with 83% of the circulating supply held unmoved for at least 155 days as of September. US spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies collectively held approximately 13% of the circulating supply as of October 2. However, institutional demand remains sensitive, evidenced by $679 million in ETF outflows during a single week of market stress.
As of October 11, Bitcoin traded around $83,000. While the four-year cycle persists, analysts note that future rallies may yield smaller gains. A sustained drop below the 50-week moving average or a decline beneath the June low of $58,525 would challenge the current bullish outlook.
