Bitcoin is currently trading near $77 250 as markets prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Futures markets indicate an 86.5% probability of a quarter-point rate hike this Wednesday. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket also estimate the likelihood of this increase to be above 80%.
The shift in expectations follows August inflation data, which showed consumer prices rising by 0.4% compared to a 0.1% increase in July, bringing the annual rate to 3.4%. In July, the committee maintained rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, though three officials dissented in favor of a hike.
Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long suggests that the Treasury Department is increasingly influencing market conditions and digital dollar regulation. The Treasury is currently conducting a buyback program for longer-dated securities, valued at $4 billion per operation, which runs from September 9 through November 4.
The Treasury General Account currently holds nearly $1 trillion, providing potential funding for these market interventions. Meanwhile, the GENIUS Act, which regulates dollar-pegged stablecoins, is scheduled to take effect on January 18, 2027, with the Treasury and the OCC already issuing proposed rules.
