Bitcoin has closed below its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since August. The asset is currently trading at $81,715, marking a 0.39% decline over the last 24 hours. This follows a rejection near the $85,000 level, ending a month of trading within the $81,000 to $85,000 range.
Technical indicators show significant compression, with Bollinger Bands narrowing to approximately $6,000, the tightest level in 2.5 years. Data from Coinglass indicates major liquidation clusters on Binance between $82,500 and $82,650, as well as near $80,850 and $80,000. Total open interest currently stands at $54.09 billion.
Institutional demand has weakened, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of 3,964 BTC, valued at roughly $322 million, on October 22. Market analysts suggest that a daily close below $81,000 could lead to a decline toward the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $77,876, potentially reaching the bull market support band between $72,500 and $76,700.
The market remains sensitive to weekend volatility as CME futures and US spot ETFs close, leaving price discovery to offshore perpetual markets. While a move above $82,600 could trigger a squeeze toward $85,000, current data suggests a bearish bias with sellers maintaining an advantage.
