Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that Bitcoin ETFs will eventually hold three times the assets of gold ETFs. Global gold ETFs held $615 billion at the end of August, meaning Bitcoin ETF assets could reach $1.85 trillion. This projection suggests a potential increase of approximately 19 times from current levels.
Balchunas identifies three primary drivers for this growth. First, Bitcoin attracts a younger demographic, with 26% of Americans aged 18–29 and 28% aged 30–49 using crypto, compared to 10% of those over 50. Second, institutional adoption is expanding, as professional investors held 21% of US Bitcoin ETF assets in Q1, and bank exposure quadrupled year-on-year.
The third factor is the robust distribution network established by issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity. Since their launch, US Bitcoin ETFs have secured $54.6 billion in net inflows. Investment advisers currently hold the equivalent of 150 000 BTC, reflecting the growing integration of Bitcoin into traditional investment channels.
Regarding potential price impact, Balchunas provides an illustrative scenario. If US funds hold between 2.52 million and 3.78 million BTC at a total valuation of $1.85 trillion, the implied price of Bitcoin ranges from $488 000 to $732 000. This represents a potential increase of 6 to 10 times the current market price.
