Bitcoin entered October at $83,823, following a September that saw a 6.33% gain. While September historically trends downward, the asset defied this pattern despite a late-month correction. Historically, October has yielded an average return of 19.92% for investors since 2013, though last year saw a 3.69% decline.
Macroeconomic factors remain a focal point as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation remains elevated, with projections suggesting another 25-basis-point hike before the end of the year. The next decision is scheduled for October 28.
Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs saw a nine-day streak of inflows totaling $3.08 billion, which ended on September 30 with $148.69 million in net outflows. Total net assets currently exceed $101 billion. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields reached 5.289% and 30-year yields hit 5.632% by the end of September.
Technical indicators, including the Average Directional Index at 41.5 and the Relative Strength Index at 61.8, suggest that buyers are currently driving the market trend. Prediction markets on Myriad estimate a 70% probability of Bitcoin reaching $87,500, while the odds of setting a new all-time high before 2027 are currently estimated at 7%.
Upcoming economic events for October include the September jobs report on October 2, FOMC minutes on October 7, and the CPI report on October 14. These data points are expected to influence market volatility as traders monitor the impact of rising bond yields and monetary policy on digital asset performance.
