Bitcoin dropped below $80 000 on Monday. Analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests this movement aligns with his bearish roadmap for 2026, which consists of nine distinct steps. Two of these milestones have already been reached: a weekly close below $83 000 and a confirmed fakeout on October 25.
The next stages of the forecast depend on upcoming macroeconomic events. Cowen expects the Federal Open Market Committee to maintain current interest rates during its October 28 decision. Additionally, he anticipates a high reading from the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release on October 29.
The roadmap also incorporates external market factors, including a rise in oil prices to approximately $120 due to the conflict in Iran, following a recent settlement of Brent crude at $116.72. Cowen further projects the 10-year Treasury yield will return to 5.3 percent, up from 5.10 percent recorded on October 15.
The sequence concludes with a decline in stock markets, a fourth-quarter slide for Bitcoin, and lower long-dated yields by the end of the year. Cowen notes that this pattern reflects a recurring trend observed during the final quarter of US midterm election years.
The bearish outlook remains valid unless Bitcoin manages to reclaim and sustain a price above $83 000. On Saturday, the asset previously dipped below $80 000, resulting in the liquidation of approximately $191 million in long positions.
