Bitcoin reached a price of $86,757 on Friday, marking a 3% increase over 24 hours. Despite this growth, the asset remains 31% below its record high from a year ago. Market data shows a 24-hour trading volume of $1.9 billion.
Economic data influences market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rates. August core PCE inflation was 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.3%. CME FedWatch data indicates a 74% probability of a rate hold at the October 28 meeting, up from 35.8% the previous week.
Labor market reports show nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, missing the 90,000 forecast. The unemployment rate reached 4.2%. July and August figures were revised downward by a combined 60,000. September CPI data is scheduled for release on October 14.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.65 billion in inflows during September and $6.34 billion for the third quarter. Total net assets in these funds reached $109.3 billion. Morgan Stanley's ETF alone attracted over $200 million in the last month.
Analysts note varying trends in market positioning. Futures open interest is down 12% from the September 22 peak, according to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev. Meanwhile, options data suggests market hedging against drawdowns at the $80,000 level and call positions at $89,000 to $92,000.
Historically, October and November are strong months for Bitcoin, with an average 18% gain in October over the past decade. Stephen Wundke of Algoz estimates a 40% probability of an October rate hike, while UPay CEO Owen Yang notes that institutional entry at current levels may impact future momentum.
