Binance Research analyzed 12 historical golden cross events for Bitcoin, comparing them based on the duration the asset spent below its 200-day moving average. The study categorized these events into shallow resets and deep freezes to evaluate potential market recovery strength.
Data shows that six golden crosses occurring after at least 150 days below the 200-day average resulted in peak gains ranging from 100% to 600% within a year. However, the report notes that longer reset periods do not consistently correlate with larger gains, as seen in historical peaks.
The analysis highlights that current market conditions are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including rising bond yields. By September 25, the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.17%, the highest level since 2007, while Bitcoin recently traded at $83 175.
Despite the bond selloff, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $998.95 million on September 21, marking the largest daily inflow of 2026. Binance Research emphasizes that future price stability depends on holding above the 50-week moving average amid upcoming economic data.
