Binance Research suggests that Bitcoin could receive support as global monetary tightening by central banks begins to decelerate. According to the report, the momentum of interest rate hikes has been easing since reaching a peak in July. Currently, eight out of the 10 central banks monitored by Binance have implemented rate increases over the past six months.
The report highlights that Bitcoin price movements historically correlate with the direction of global monetary policy rather than specific rate levels. For instance, in 2024, Bitcoin achieved a six-month return exceeding 160% in March during a period of tightening. Analysts note that the macroeconomic environment for crypto may become less hostile if this easing trend persists into early 2027.
Despite these projections, markets are currently pricing in a potential rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in December. Data from the CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a 25-basis-point increase has risen to 96.3%. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated he is considering a hike of 25 or 50 basis points depending on core inflation data.
Market data shows that Bitcoin has experienced a 3.5% decline over the past week, contributing to a 30% drop over the last year. The asset is currently trading at $74 131, which is 41% below its all-time high of $126 198. Bitwise analysts also recently suggested that a potential slowdown in economic growth could eventually lead central banks to pivot toward monetary easing.
