Bernstein analysts project that the annual trading volume of prediction markets will reach $10 trillion by 2035. This forecast is ten times higher than the firm's previous estimate for 2030. Analysts expect the industry to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 70% over the next decade.
The market is shifting away from sports betting, which accounted for 61% of volume in 2025. Bernstein expects this share to drop to 38% by 2035, while financial assets—including crypto, stocks, and commodities—are projected to grow from 12% to 49% of the total market volume.
Platform data shows significant growth for Kalshi, which now controls about 60% of the industry volume, compared to 35% a year ago. Commodity trading on this platform rose from less than $2 million in 2025 to approximately $590 million in the first eight months of 2026.
Robinhood is also expanding its presence in this sector, reporting a tenfold revenue increase to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026 for its event-contract business. Bernstein notes that regulatory clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets is unlikely to be achieved before 2027 or 2028.
