Analysts at Bernstein suggest that crypto markets have not yet accounted for potential progress on the Clarity Act. The bill aims to establish federal regulations for digital assets and define the oversight roles of the SEC and CFTC.
Republican sponsors recently introduced a revised draft containing 126 changes requested by Democrats. Key updates include new ethics enforcement mechanisms and protections for community bank deposits, specifically addressing concerns regarding stablecoin rewards.
The revised ethics provisions now involve state attorneys general and include requirements for divestment or blind trusts. President Donald Trump has reportedly agreed to these updated restrictions, which were previously a point of contention.
Market experts remain divided on the bill's future. TD Cowen estimates a 25% chance of enactment this year, while Beacon Policy Advisors increased their probability forecast to a range of 30% to 40%.
If the legislation fails to pass, the CFTC intends to develop its own regulatory framework using existing authority. CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig noted that while the agency is exploring these rules, legislative action would offer more durable protections.
