Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, believes there is a 65% chance that Bitcoin's cycle low is still ahead. Despite a summer rally where BTC rally roughly 40% from its summer low, Cowen argues that such bounces do not confirm a bottom. He notes that similar or larger recoveries occurred in 2018 and 2022, but prices fell again in the fourth quarter of those midterm years.
Cowen identifies the realized price of approximately $53,000 as the critical level to watch. He explains that in every previous midterm-year bear market, the bottom was formed below this line. This realized price represents the network's aggregate cost basis and serves as a historical marker for cycle lows.
The analyst expects headwinds for Bitcoin over the next one and a half months. He suggests that an October low would align with the four-year cycle pattern he tracks. If Bitcoin clears October without reaching a new lower low, the odds will shift toward the bulls. He anticipates that more bears will turn bullish as the fourth quarter progresses.
Cowen plans to turn bullish again heading into 2027, regardless of the current year's outcome. He recommends a dollar-cost-averaging approach over trying to pinpoint the exact bottom. He emphasizes that his analysis is not financial advice, but he continues to treat $53,000 as the key threshold for the same cycle low.
