Analysts Charles Edwards and Root have independently identified signals suggesting the Bitcoin bear market has concluded. Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, issued his signal on September 4 based on the Market Hedge Ratio. This metric, which tracks the USDT to BTC market cap ratio, reached -20.42 percent, hitting a threshold of -20.78 percent. A falling ratio indicates capital shifting from stablecoins into Bitcoin.
Root, an analyst at Bitcoin Strategy, reached a similar conclusion by analyzing price structure. His model tracks when the price reclaims the 200-day moving average, the 21-week average, and the short-term holder cost basis. The current breakout occurred 1,314 days after the 2023 signal, which is approximately 65 days ahead of the historical rhythm observed in previous cycles.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $79 755 with a market capitalization near $1.6 trillion. The price remains above the 21-week average of $79 355, providing a buffer of 0.5 percent. Below this, the short-term holder cost basis is at $70 853, while the 200-day average sits at $69 785. A weekly close below the support shelf near $70 000 would invalidate both analysts' theses.
Neither analyst predicts an immediate bull run, focusing instead on the absence of conditions that define a bear market. Edwards notes that his signal is short-term, valid only until the ratio turns red. Root acknowledges that his breakout occurred two months ahead of schedule, suggesting that while the bear market conditions may have subsided, a continuation cannot be entirely ruled out.
