Mike McGlone, a senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warns that Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 if the S&P 500 index undergoes a 20% correction. He characterizes Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset that is heavily correlated with stock market performance.
McGlone identifies three bearish signals: Bitcoin's failure to break the $80,000 resistance level after stalling at $76,746, the expected 70 basis point hike in Federal Reserve interest rates, and the S&P 500 trading significantly above its 200-week moving average.
The analyst argues that Bitcoin's risk-adjusted performance is poor, noting that its five-year returns have matched the S&P 500 despite significantly higher volatility. He believes key growth catalysts, such as spot ETFs and institutional adoption, are already priced in.
Conversely, Blockstream CEO Adam Back disputes the bearish outlook. He suggests that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $65,000, citing the 200-week moving average as a historical mathematical floor for the asset's price during market cycles.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $77,000. Market participants remain cautious, awaiting further signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy while observing the asset's struggle to maintain upward momentum due to limited spot demand.
