Two key indicators for Bitcoin have shifted to positive momentum this week, marking the end of a 10-month bearish trend. The MVRV Momentum Oscillator, which tracks the ratio between market capitalization and realized value, turned green on October 13 at a level of +0.07. This follows a red phase that persisted since late 2025, with the 2026 bear market bottoming at -0.4, a shallower decline compared to the -0.55 troughs seen in 2018 and 2022.
Additionally, the weekly MACD indicator crossed above zero after 44 weeks of negative readings. While similar crossovers occurred in 2019 and 2023, the subsequent market performance varied significantly. In 2023, the signal preceded a price increase from $25,000 to over $70,000, whereas in 2019, the price rose to $13,800 before dropping below $4,000 by March 2020. A 50-week moving average signal also reappeared last month.
Market analysts suggest that the traditional four-year cycle for Bitcoin may be disrupted. Eric Crown notes that the asset either bottomed early in July at $57,800 or is currently behind its expected schedule. Meanwhile, the CryptoQuant Analyst Consensus Index, based on data from 164 analysts, rose from -18.3 on July 2 to +49.2 by October 13, with the bullish sentiment share increasing from 37% to 84% during that period.
Despite the shift in indicators and sentiment, Bitcoin is currently trading near $81,679, reflecting a 1.7% decline over 24 hours. The price remains roughly 6% below the late September peak of $87,000. Analysts are now monitoring whether the current consensus among market participants will hold as the asset faces future price tests.
