Onchain analyst James Check, founder of Checkonchain, suggests that Bitcoin may have reached its cycle bottom at approximately $58 000. This conclusion follows two distinct capitulation events observed in February and the June-July period, which the analyst believes have effectively absorbed market selling pressure.
Bitcoin reached a record high of over $126 000 in October 2025. As of mid-September 2026, the asset traded near $77 400, marking a decline of nearly 39% from its peak. Check notes that roughly $300 billion in Bitcoin cost basis is concentrated between $58 000 and $70 000, with 4 million BTC shifting from unrealized loss to profit.
The analyst argues against relying on historical four-year cycle patterns to predict an October 2026 low, stating that calendar dates lack mechanical significance. Instead, he advises investors to monitor metrics such as cost basis, realized losses, and the accumulation behavior of experienced market participants.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, supports the view that the market bottomed at $58 000 in late June. Pandl notes that the recent downturn exhibited less investor despair compared to previous bear markets, suggesting the asset has shown resilience by failing to drop further despite negative news flow.
Onchain data provides mixed signals regarding market recovery. While HODL Waves data indicates a muted response from buyers, CryptoQuant reports that short-term holders maintained partial profitability for 30 consecutive days in 2026, a trend historically associated with market recoveries.
